2040年風電光伏在全球發電占多大比例？IEA說16%；BNEF說34%

依照彭博新資(zi)源(yuan)汽(qi)車系統(tong)財經信(xin)息(BNEF)的(de)(de)(de)數劇，2016世界十大電(dian)(dian)(dian)力資(zi)源(yuan)安裝系統(tong)6719吉瓦，其(qi)中的(de)(de)(de)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)例(li)為30%，再者是天然(ran)的(de)(de)(de)氣來帶發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(24%)、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)線路(17%)、陸上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(7%)、柴油(6%)、光伏帶發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(5%)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(5%)。明(ming)顯可見的(de)(de)(de)，2016化石資(zi)源(yuan)系統(tong)來帶發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)熱量的(de)(de)(de)比(bi)例(li)為提升60%。

BNEF予測2040年(nian)(nian)全國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)安裝裝置(zhi)(zhi)將(jiang)可達(da)13919吉瓦，拔(ba)冗太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)廠(chang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)安裝裝置(zhi)(zhi)儲存(cun)(cun)量比重(zhong)將(jiang)可達(da)32%(22%共公事業(ye)有成級太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)廠(chang)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)廠(chang)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)、10%微(wei)型(xing)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)廠(chang)裝置(zhi)(zhi))，再就是是陸上風力(li)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(14%)、天(tian)然水(shui)氣生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)廠(chang)(14%)、煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(13%)、水(shui)暖(12%)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)建設(2%)。這類覺得，到2040年(nian)(nian)風力(li)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)廠(chang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)安裝裝置(zhi)(zhi)比重(zhong)將(jiang)可達(da)46%，但會因為(wei)(wei)儲存(cun)(cun)量分子(zi)較低(di)(年(nian)(nian)度(du)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)廠(chang)小(xiao)的時(shi)候(hou)數(shu))，BNEF保守估計(ji)風力(li)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)廠(chang)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)廠(chang)量比重(zhong)為(wei)(wei)34%。

顯然(ran)，的(de)醫療(liao)機構的(de)預(yu)測要大(da)少于(yu)BNEF的(de)預(yu)測。好(hao)比全國能(neng)量署(shu)(IEA)我認為2040年的(de)風能(neng)發電(dian)光伏系統占總發電(dian)容量的(de)比例表(biao)約為16%，在(zai)連(lian)續能(neng)量的(de)消費(fei)中僅占2.9%。