2040年風電光伏在全球發電占多大比例？IEA說16%；BNEF說34%

據(ju)彭博新能(neng)(neng)量財(cai)訊(BNEF)的(de)數據(ju)庫，2017年(nian)亞(ya)洲(zhou)地區電(dian)力(li)公司安裝(zhuang)系統6719吉瓦，其中的(de)煤電(dian)比率30%，首先其次(ci)是(shi)大(da)自然(ran)氣火(huo)力(li)發電(dian)站(24%)、水電(dian)費(fei)(17%)、陸上(shang)風電(dian)(7%)、柴(chai)油(you)(6%)、光伏太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(5%)、核電(dian)建設(5%)。可以(yi)看出，2017年(nian)化石能(neng)(neng)量火(huo)力(li)發電(dian)站儲存量比率提升60%。

BNEF精準預測2040年(nian)全球最大(da)能(neng)(neng)量電(dian)(dian)腦安裝(zhuang)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)設(she)備(bei)(bei)將(jiang)符合13919吉瓦(wa)，介時(shi)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)光伏系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)電(dian)(dian)腦安裝(zhuang)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)設(she)備(bei)(bei)余量的比(bi)例(li)為(wei)(wei)將(jiang)符合32%(22%服務(wu)性事(shi)業級(ji)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)光伏系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)變電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)、10%全自動太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)光伏系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)設(she)備(bei)(bei))，次之是陸上風(feng)力來(lai)發電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)廠(chang)(14%)、綠色氣電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(14%)、煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(13%)、水電(dian)(dian)費(fei)(12%)、核電(dian)(dian)廠(chang)(2%)。那樣看(kan)到(dao)，到(dao)2040年(nian)風(feng)力來(lai)發電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)廠(chang)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)光伏系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)電(dian)(dian)腦安裝(zhuang)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)設(she)備(bei)(bei)的比(bi)例(li)為(wei)(wei)將(jiang)符合46%，但致(zhi)使(shi)余量指數(shu)較低(整年(nian)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)半小時(shi)數(shu))，BNEF不斷風(feng)力來(lai)發電(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)廠(chang)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)光伏系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)太(tai)陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)量的比(bi)例(li)為(wei)(wei)為(wei)(wei)34%。

同時，其他設備的(de)分析(xi)要大不超BNEF的(de)分析(xi)。詞有新國際自(zi)然(ran)再(zai)生資(zi)源署(IEA)感覺2040年的(de)風能發電太陽能光(guang)伏占總發充電的(de)身材比例約為16%，在連(lian)續(xu)自(zi)然(ran)再(zai)生資(zi)源消費(fei)需(xu)求中僅占2.9%。