2040年風電光伏在全球發電占多大比例？IEA說16%；BNEF說34%

依據彭博綠(lv)色(se)綠(lv)色(se)能源資源財(cai)經(jing)(BNEF)的(de)統計(ji)資料(liao)，2016全(quan)球(qiu)各(ge)地電(dian)力(li)(li)設備電(dian)腦裝機(ji)6719吉(ji)瓦，其中的(de)煤電(dian)比(bi)率30%，前(qian)者是非天然氣使用量火(huo)力(li)(li)火(huo)力(li)(li)發電(dian)(24%)、水電(dian)氣(17%)、陸上風(feng)電(dian)(7%)、柴油(you)(6%)、光伏火(huo)力(li)(li)發電(dian)(5%)、核電(dian)廠(5%)。可以說，2016化石綠(lv)色(se)能源資源火(huo)力(li)(li)火(huo)力(li)(li)發電(dian)容積比(bi)率做到60%。

BNEF預測分(fen)析2040年(nian)(nian)世界上魅力安(an)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)體(ti)(ti)(ti)統(tong)(tong)將可(ke)達(da)13919吉瓦，拔冗太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)統(tong)(tong)安(an)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)體(ti)(ti)(ti)統(tong)(tong)存(cun)儲(chu)功(gong)率(lv)的比例(li)(li)為(wei)將可(ke)達(da)32%(22%公眾人事級(ji)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)統(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠、10%大(da)型太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)統(tong)(tong)體(ti)(ti)(ti)統(tong)(tong))，然后是陸上風(feng)能(neng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(14%)、純天然氣管道生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)組(14%)、煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(13%)、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)工程(cheng)(12%)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(2%)。這(zhe)樣一(yi)來其實，到(dao)2040年(nian)(nian)風(feng)能(neng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)統(tong)(tong)安(an)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)體(ti)(ti)(ti)統(tong)(tong)的比例(li)(li)為(wei)將可(ke)達(da)46%，但會(hui)因為(wei)存(cun)儲(chu)功(gong)率(lv)指數(shu)較低(整(zheng)年(nian)(nian)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)組H數(shu))，BNEF開展風(feng)能(neng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)太(tai)(tai)(tai)陽(yang)(yang)(yang)能(neng)體(ti)(ti)(ti)統(tong)(tong)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)組量的比例(li)(li)為(wei)為(wei)34%。

而是，許(xu)多結構的(de)(de)預測要極大的(de)(de)超過BNEF的(de)(de)預測。表示(shi)動作的(de)(de)詞國.際(ji)清潔資(zi)源署(IEA)人(ren)為2040年的(de)(de)風力發電光(guang)伏發電占(zhan)總發電容量的(de)(de)比例圖(tu)約為16%，在(zai)單次清潔資(zi)源購物中僅占(zhan)2.9%。